Secondary school recruitment in 2024/25 (so far)
24th April 2025 by Timo Hannay [link]
Welcome to our annual review of secondary school recruitment – conducted, as usual, in collaboration with the Gatsby Foundation and Teacher Tapp. We are particularly grateful to the Gatsby Foundation for their generous funding of this initiative. Please see our joint report, which covers both primary and secondary, and includes survey data from Teacher Tapp. This blog post acts as a supplement, providing more detailed analysis of recruitment activity as revealed by vacancies posted on secondary-school and college websites. It also looks at headteacher turnover across primary and secondary phases.
This year's report is a couple of months earlier than usual, enabling us to share insights before the traditional peak season in late April and early May. We will provide a further update in the summer to review what happened over the full course of the current academic year.
Summary of findings to date:
- Following three years of higher-than-usual teacher recruitment across secondary schools and colleges in England, activity in the current academic year has so far been very subdued, with overall changes of -31% compared to last year and -22% compared to the most recent pre-pandemic year.
- Possible causes include a negative rebound from the elevated levels of activity seen in recent years; lower overall demand driven by squeezed school enrolments and budgets; general labour-market conditions; or some combination of these factors.
- There are variations by subject, school type and location. Arts, humanties and technology subjects saw the smallest decreases compared to pre-pandemic baseline. Also, recruitment activity tended to be higher in London and the South East, and at schools with higher proportions of poor pupils.
- School technician advertising rates have returned to Earth too, following a period of elevated activity. Across all subjects, they showed a -31% change compare to last year and a -26% change compared to the most recent pre-pandemic year. Particularly large declines were seen in affluent and middling urban areas. Arts subjects showed the smallest decrease relative to pre-pandemic levels and there was considerable regional variation. Unlike the situation for teachers, recruitment activity for technicians was lower among schools with high proportions of poor pupils.
- Headteacher turnover across both primary and secondary schools in England has also fallen compared to recent years and is now at, or even slightly below, pre-pandemic levels.
- While the signs so far are of relatively muted school recruitment activity, the data presented here only go up to early April 2025. Peak season is usually in late April or early May. We therefore intend to provided an update in the summer in order to review activity across the whole current academic year.
Teachers wanted
Figure 1 shows the number of teacher vacancy adverts found on English secondary-school and college websites during each week from September 2017 to the week commencing 31st March 2025. (See Footnote 1 for a description of how the data were gathered.)
Across all subjects there are clear seasonal cycles, with annual peaks in late April or early May. Academic years 20217/18 and 2018/19 showed very consistent patterns and levels of activity, but this was followed by two subdued years during the pandemic of 2019/20 and 2020/21. There was then a rebound, with activity during 2021/22 and 2022/23 not only much higher than that seen during the pandemic, but also compared to 'normal' pre-pandemic years. Last year, 2023/24, was a mixed bag, with higher-than-usual activity during the early part of the year in September to December, but an unusually muted peak season in March and April. Overall, activity last year was a bit higher than was typical before the pandemic, but that was due to an unusually active off-seasons in the autumn and summer. To put it another way, hiring had become less seasonal compared to before the pandemic.
Was this a temporary blip or a new state of affairs in teacher recruitment? We have yet to reach peak season in the current 2024/25 academic year, but results so far indicate that activity was at or slightly below normal pre-pandemic levels in the autumn term (September to December), and well below that – in fact, roughly at mid-pandemic levels – during the spring term (January to early April). We examine this in more detail below.
Note that these patterns differ somewhat by subject area: see adverts for teachers in the arts, English, the humanities, languages, maths, science and technology.
(Use the menu below to select a subject area to view. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 1: Weekly teacher recruitment advert counts among secondary schools in England
Figure 2 shows the same data, but with each academic year overlaid using lines of different colours, making it easier to compare across years. As observed above, the general annual pattern is for activity to be relatively low during the autumn term, rising in the spring and early summer term, then declining again as the summer holiday approaches. This seasonal pattern in the weekly data was very consistent before the pandemic, with 2018/19 (red line) providing a representative baseline. But in 2019/20 (yellow) there was no springtime peak due to the national lockdown and consequent school closures. Activity continued to be subdued in 2020/21 (green), especially during the lockdowns in early 2021. 2021/22 (light blue) saw much greater activity, rising to historically high levels in spring 2022 and then even higher peaks in 2022/23 (dark blue). 2023/24 (purple) showed higher-than usual activity (similar to 2022/23) between September and December, but more moderate levels (comparable to 2018/19) during the peak season from March to May. So far in 2024/25 (black), activity has been moderate (similar to pre-pandemic levels) in the autumn term but very low (comparable to mid-pandemic levels) in the spring term.
(Use the menus below to view weekly or cumulative data, and to select different subject areas. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years or to show all of them together. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 2: Teacher recruitment adverts among secondary schools in England
Looking again at Figure 2 with all years shown together, it is useful to compare cumulative numbers of adverts, which make the differences between years easier to see. With 2018/19 (red line) as the pre-pandemic reference, 2019/20 (yellow) saw a clear decline, followed by a further drop in 2020/21 (green) and a rebound to historically high levels in 2021/22 (light blue) and 2022/23 (dark blue). In 2023/24 (purple), activity was elevated during the autumn term, but then followed pre-pandemic patterns in the spring and summer terms, leaving overall activity both higher and less seasonal than before. The current 2024/25 year (black) tracked just below pre-pandemic levels during the autumn term, but fell to mid-pandemic levels in the spring term. It will be interesting to see what happens during the (usually) peak season in late April and early May. If those patterns are similar to last year then we might be about to see the lowest levels of overall activity since the time of the pandemic.
You can also explore the patterns in Figure 2 by subject area: arts, English, the humanities, languages, maths, science and technology. We will return to these subject-based differences below.
Why have we seen a drop in overall secondary-school recruitment activity so far this year? For a discussion, see our joint paper, but to brielfy outline what would appear to be the most likely possible reasons:
- The level of teacher turnover might have fallen in the wake of the recruitment boom over the last 3-4 years
- Schools might have fewer teaching positions due to falling enrolments and/or declining budgets
- Schools might have become less likely to post vacancies online
- We might have become less able to find vacancies posted online
All of these are possible and we are not able to distinguish between them using the available data, but we consider items 1 and 2, possibly in combination, to be the most plausible. If teachers typically stay in post for around 5 years then we might be seeing an 'echo' of the reduced turnover during 2019/2020. To put it another way, a higher-than-usual proportion of teachers assumed their current roles within the last 3 years and might therefore not be ready to switch jobs again. On top of this, we know that school budgets are under pressure and that the falling enrolments already faced by primary schools are beginning to work their way towards secondary schools. Regarding the more general vacancies picture, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that Q1 2025 job vacancies across the UK were down compared to the previous quarter and previous year, as well as falling below the level seen just before the pandemic. It seems relatively implausible that schools and colleges have become less likely to post vacancy information on their websites, especially since the period of unusually low activity is very recent, having really only begun in January 2025.
Figure 3 summarises the changes seen so far this year by subject area, comparing the current school year with equivalent periods last year (blue columns) and during the most recent pre-pandemic year (red). Looking at percentage changes for both years together, all subjects showed year-on-year changes of between -24% ('other' subjects) and 39% (languages). But because 2023/24 was an unusually active year overall, the differences compared to before the pandemic were more modest, ranging from a 0% change ('other' subjects) to a -32% change (English).
In terms of absolute numbers of adverts, science showed the largest decrease since before the pandemic (-1,232 adverts), while 'other' subjects showed the smallest change (-7 adverts). In total, we have so far found 7,834 fewer adverts than last year (blue columns) and 4,679 fewer than in the most recent pre-pandemic year (red).
(Use the menu below to switch between percentage changes and changes in numbers of adverts. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)
Figure 3: Change in secondary school teacher recruitment by subject
Figure 4 shows numbers of teacher adverts by school location and type, adjusted for their different teacher population sizes. Values are shown for equivalent periods between September and April just before the pandemic (2018/19, red columns) and for the current year (2024/25, blue). Note that Figures 4 and 5 (as well as 9 and 10 below) omit positions advertised by multi-school federations or trusts because it is hard to associate those vacancies with specific schools. These kinds of adverts constitute a relatively small but steadily increasing proportion of the total, so the data shown here will tend to understate overall activity. However, they can be informative in comparing relative activity levels between different types of school or location.
Across all subjects, the regions with the highest rates of advertising were London and the South East, while the lowest rates were in the North East. The biggest decreases between the most recent pre-pandemic year and the current year were in those same regions, plus the East of England. Schools with higher proportions of children who are eligible for free school meals have tended to advertise at higher rates than those with lower proportions, and this gap has grown since the pandemic. There is no similar consistent trend for schools located in poorer areas, with the exception of maths vacancies.
We have recently proposed the use of a clustering algorithm to group schools according to their local socioeconomic environments. This potentially allows aspects of disadvantage beyond income deprivation (eg, crime, environment, health and housing) to be taken into account. In practice we find that schools cluster along along two principal axes: one corresponding roughly to the degree of income deprivation and the other to the level of urbanisation. In other words, these clusters reflect the fact that the qualitative aspects of being poor in metropolitan or urban areas tend to be different to those in suburban or rural areas2. Looking at the differences in advertising rates by cluster, we can see that affluent urban areas tended to show the highest levels of activity before the pandemic, but these have also fallen most since then, and in the current academic year levels of activity have so far been broadly similar across these clusters.
Overall, then, schools in London and the South East, and those with higher proportions of poor pupils, appear to be showing the highest levels of recruiting activity in the current academic year.
(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 4: Relative teacher recruitment rates at state secondary schools by location and type
Figure 5 shows relative advertising rates for each of the school clusters mentioned above. Unsurprisingly, certain subject areas – notably science, maths, humanities and English – are in highest demand overall. However, we can also see differences by cluster. For example, in poor urban areas maths is in relatively high demand compared to, say, affluent suburban areas.
(Use the menu below to explore different school groups. Hover over the columns to see corresponding values.)
Figure 5: Relative teacher recruitment rates at state secondary schools by subject area and school cluster
Technical debt
Figure 6 shows weekly numbers of technician recruitment adverts on secondary-school and colleges websites. These usually peak in June and September, though the seasonality is less clearcut than for teachers, probably in part because the absolute numbers are about 10 times lower. Across all subjects, the pandemic caused a noticeable decline followed by a roughly two-year period of unusually high activity between 2021 and 2023. The was broadly true across the main subject areas, which in the case of technicians consist of the arts, science, technology and other subjects.
(Use the menu below to select a subject area to view. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 6: Weekly technician recruitment advert counts among secondary schools in England
Figure 7 shows the same data with each year overlaid for easier comparison. 2018/19 (red line) showed a conventional seasonal pattern, with peaks in September and June. In 2019/20 (yellow), spring and summer recruiting were depressed by the pandemic and this continued into early 2020/21 (green). Activity then rose in summer 2021 and continued at elevated levels during 2021/22 (light blue) and 2022/23 (dark blue). In 2023/24 (purple), activity declined to almost pre-pandemic levels. So far in 2024/25 (black) it has been even lower than this.
Looking again at all years together, the cumulative data demonstrate just how high activity was in the two years following the pandemic (light and dark blue), not only compared to the mid-pandemic years (yellow and green), but also to pre-pandemic levels (red). 2023/24 (purple) returned to only just above those long-term norms, while the current year, 2024/25 (black), looks more like a mid-pandemic year again. We consider it likely that the reasons underlying the current decline are similar to those for teachers discussed above.
(Use the menus below to view weekly or cumulative data, and to select different subject areas. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 7: Technician recruitment among secondary schools in England
Figure 8 shows the percentage changes by subject area, comparing activity so far this year with the equivalent periods last year (blue columns) and in the most recent pre-pandemic year (red). Looking again at both years together, there has so far been a change of -31% compared to last year, and of -26% compared to pre-pandemic levels. In terms of numbers of adverts across all subjects, there were 659 fewer adverts than the equivalent period last year and 524 fewer adverts than before the pandemic.
(Use the menu below to switch between percentage changes and changes in numbers of adverts. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)
Figure 8: Change in secondary school technician recruitment by subject
Figure 9 shows numbers of technician adverts by school location and type, adjusted for their different staff populations (using teacher numbers in the denominator since total technician numbers are not publicly available). Values are shown for equivalent periods between September and April just before the pandemic (2018/19, red columns) and for the current year (2024/25, blue).
Across all subjects, the regions with the highest rates of advertising were Yorkshire and the Humber, the East of England, the South East and the South West. London and the South East. The lowest rates were in the North East. The biggest decrease between the most recent pre-pandemic year and the current year were in Yorkshire and the Humber. Schools with higher proportions of children who are eligible for free school meals and schools located in poorer areas have tended to advertise at lower rates – more or less the opposite trend to that seen for teachers. Across school clusters (see discussion of Figure 4 above and Footnote 2 for explanations of what these are), the general trend has been for advertising rates to be lower in poorer areas and more urban areas.
(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 9: Relative technician recruitment rates at state secondary schools by location and type
Figure 10 shows relative advertising rates for each of the school clusters. Similarly to teachers, certain subject areas – in this case science and technology – are in highest demand overall. There are also clear differences by cluster. For example, recruitment activity in affluent suburban areas has barely changed at all, but has fallen sharply in affluent urban and urban areas.
(Use the menu below to explore different school groups. Hover over the columns to see corresponding values.)
Figure 10: Relative technician recruitment rates at state secondary schools by subject area and school cluster
Headhunt
We do not track headteacher vacancies, but we do monitor new headteacher appointments using data from the Department for Education (DfE). This involves detecting headteacher name changes in the daily data releases issued by the DfE, then filtering out those that don't correspond to genuine staff changes, such as typo corrections or surname changes. Unlike the advertising data presented above, which are leading indicators of new appointments, these headteacher changes are, if anything, lagging indicators.
Figure 11 shows the number of headteacher changes at primary and secondary schools in England during each month so far this year (2024/25) and for the six preceding academic years. Unsurprisingly, the annual peak is invariably in September, with somewhat raised turnover also evident in January and April (ie, at the beginning of the spring and summer terms, respectively).
Year-on-year changes are easiest to see using cumulative data. Across all schools, we saw about 4,000 total changes each year in the period before the pandemic (2018/19, red line) and during its early stages (2019/20, yellow). Turnover then dropped in 2020/21 (green) and began to return in 2021/22 (light blue) before rising well above normal levels in 2022/23 (dark blue) and 2023/24 (purple). So far this year, 2024-25 (black), things seem to have returned to more or less normal. If anything, there might be a slight undershoot compared to pre-pandemic levels, but its too soon to be sure about this. While these overall patterns are similar across phases, there are some subtle differences between primary and secondary schools. In particular, headteacher turnover at primary schools was much slower to drop in response to the pandemic than at secondary schools.
(Use the menus below to switch between monthly and cumulative data, as well a between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)
Figure 11: Number of headteacher changes at schools in England
Final assessment
The overall picture so far this year is of very muted recruitment activity, at least among secondary schools, with teacher and technician vacancy adverts much lower than last year (which was unusually high by historical standards), but also compared to 'normal' pre-pandemic levels. Headteacher turnover among both primary and secondary schools shows broadly similar trends. These also appear to be consistent with both school survey results (see the Teacher Tapp data in our joint report) and general UK labour-market conditions (see the latest ONS statistics). However, we have not yet reached peak season for teacher recruitment, which usually occurs in late April or early May. We plan to provided an update soon after that in order to review activity across the whole of the current academic year. See you again then.
Footnotes: