Too few schools or too few kids?

  • In 2016, schools in England had seen 10 years of unbroken year-on-year growth in cohort sizes. But by 2018, new cohorts had begun to decline in size and they have fallen ever since. Recent birth rates indicate that this overall trend will continue for at least another few years and possibly much longer. The result is that currently declining primary school enrolments will continue to fall.
  • As these cohorts grow older, secondary school intakes will also start to reduce in size. For the time being, the total secondary school population will continue to rise as the graduating cohorts remain smaller than the incoming ones, but in the next four years or so this balance will tip and overall secondary school numbers will also start to fall.
  • Crucially, the effects of these macro trends do not impact all schools equally. For example, the decline in primary school enrolments since 2019 has disproportionately affected poorer schools, smaller schools and those with lower Ofsted ratings. Some regions (eg, London and the South West) have also been affected more than others. These same schools also tended to start with lower occupancy rates and are therefore at even at greater risk of becoming unviable.
  • Though secondary schools in those same groups (poor, low-rated etc.) have shown particularly strong growth while overall headcounts have been rising, the coming decline in numbers seems likely to affect them disproportionately too, resulting in rapid reversals in enrolment trends that they might not be anticipating.
  • At the same time, the proportion of pupils in England attending an independent school have been in gradual decline, albeit from very different starting points in different parts of the country.
  • Whilst local situations obviously vary, and this analysis looks only at numbers of school places, not their quality or suitability, it suggests that the greatest demographic challenge for schools in England is not too many children, but too few. This is particularly true when, as now, funding is tight and tied directly to pupil numbers.
Figure 1: Numbers of pupils attending state schools in England
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Figure 2: Change in primary school occupancy (2019-2023) against starting occupancy (2019) by school type
Notes: Dot sizes correspond to pupil numbers.
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Figure 3: Change in secondary school occupancy (2019-2023) against starting occupancy (2019) by school type
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Figure 4: Live births (England and Wales) with corresponding school cohort sizes (England only)
Sources: Office for National Statistics; Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Figure 5: Proportions of school pupils in England attending independent schools by region
Note: Tweets mentioning education, schools, pupils, students, colleges or universities.
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
 

Are independent schools losing their heads too?

  • Headteacher turnover at independent schools is less seasonal than at state schools. Historically, about 40% of new headteacher appointments at state schools are made in September. At independent schools it's more like 20-30% (as well as being more statistically volatile, probably just because of the smaller number of schools).
  • While state schools saw a substantial decline in new headteacher appointments in 2020-21 (ie, the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic), independent schools saw a large increase in the same year, taking them to around 40% above normal pre-pandemic levels. They then declined in 2021-22 before jumping up again in 2022-23. So far, 2023-24 looks like being another hyperactive year.
  • The result is that, unlike state schools, independent schools have so far seen no years during or after the pandemic during which headteacher turnover has been lower than during a normal pre-pandemic year.
  • Similar patterns are evident when the analysis is limited to schools that are members of the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which generally represents larger and more mainstream independent schools. So the effects described above do not appear to be due to a subset of unrepresentative 'outlier' schools.
  • There has also been a big increase in new headteacher appointments made in quick succession. Historically, around 10-15% of appointments at independent schools occur within 2-12 months of a previous change. Since the pandemic, this has risen to well over 20%.
Figure 1: New headteacher appointments among mainstream independent schools in England
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Note: Primary schools are those with only a primary phase. Middle and all-through schools are categorised as secondary schools.
Figure 2: New headteacher appointments among mainstream ISC schools in England
Sources: Department for Education; SchoolDash Insights; SchoolDash analysis.
Note: Primary schools are those with only a primary phase. Middle and all-through schools are categorised as secondary schools.
 

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